What a Kamala Harris Presidency Means for CEOs

On the face of it, presidential hopeful Kamala Harris has some positive economic tailwinds behind her when it comes to appealing to America’s CEOs. 

Under the Biden-Harris administration, US stock markets indices hit all-time highs, at one point the number of US manufacturing jobs hit their highest since 2008 and inflation dropped to below 4%.

This spring, Vice-President Harris went on a charm offensive with US CEOs to build her credibility with big business. According to Bloomberg, Harris had meetings with CEOs of some of America’s biggest companies, including Visa CEO Ryan McInerney, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and CVS Health CEO Karen Lynch.

And she seems to have had a warm reception, building on her reputation as a centrist and an enforcer of the law, given her past role as California attorney general.

Vice-President Harris raised $300m in corporate and private donations to her campaign in July, with another $36m raised since she announced Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a management professor at Yale School of Management, wrote in TIME that, “Many CEOs I’ve spoken with are euphoric about Harris’ candidacy.”

On the other hand, AGF Investments chief US policy strategist Greg Valliere told CNN: “She’s a blank slate. She can’t afford to go too far to the left because it would erode business confidence. And so much of the economy is all about confidence.”

However, the news that American unemployment crept up to 4.3% last month triggered a worldwide financial market plunge, indicating that the post-pandemic economic recovery in America is still fragile, and that could cause problems for Harris if the economy keeps stuttering. 

After all, the business of America is business and, as President Clinton famously put it, “It’s the economy, stupid.”  

So, what would a Kamala Harris presidency mean for CEOs?

Respecting the rule of law

Critics of President Trump point to his flagrant disregard for the rule of law, whether being accused of making foreign aid aid conditional on personal favours or asking state election officials to find him thousands of votes and overturn an election result which went against him. 

Nor would a President Harris carry on as former President Trump did, mercurially intervening in private business transactions when it suited, such as trying to help Larry Ellision at Oracle to buy TikTok, or threatening to heavily tax Harley-Davidson for moving some of its motorbike production abroad to avoid a 31% EU trade tariff.

As one Republican business leader told Professor Sonnenfeld, “Business leaders prefer to invest where there is the rule of law, not the law of rulers”.

Nuanced antitrust action

Some CEOs and wealthy donors are hopeful that a President Harris would dial down Biden-era anti-monopoly crackdowns, such as the (failed) attempt by regulator the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to stop Microsoft buying Call of Duty video-game producer Activision Blizzard. 

Business leaders have resented what they view as invasive antitrust probes, led by Lina Khan at the FTC. Khan believes that “more vigorous antitrust enforcement is critical to the dynamism of our economy”, whether that is strengthening competition, protecting consumers and bolstering workers’ rights.

Indeed, some antitrust investigations potentially blocking company mergers have taken so long, they have put weaker companies the subject of takeovers at risk, halving their share prices. 

“She’s smart,” Expedia chairman Barry Diller said of Khan, “but I believe [she] overreaches in disrupting sensible business combinations.”

Harris has warned against “shortsighted” antitrust enforcement, pointing out that the government “can’t stand in the way of business growth and development”.

(Ironically, vice-presidential hopeful JD Vance told Bloomberg in February this year, “a lot of my Republican colleagues look at Lina Khan and they say, ‘well, Lina Khan is sort of engaged in some sort of fundamental evil thing.’ And I look at Lina Khan as one of the few people in the Biden administration that I think is doing a pretty good job”.)

Tech regulation

Given Vice-President Harris’ connections to the San Francisco tech area, many expect her to have a more relaxed approach to technology regulation. 

She engaged with tech company executives, creating working groups on privacy, unionisation, corporate whistleblowing and protecting worker’s rights, while at the same time suing eBay over alleged anti-competitive hiring practices and pressuring Facebook and Google to clamp down on sharing revenge pornography on social media.  

International trade

Would-be President Trump 2.0 has threatened to impose a 10% tariff on all US imports, which would no doubt trigger a regulatory tit-for-tat from exporters overseas. This must have sent a shiver through Big Tech USA, whose non-domestic revenues are thought to be over $1 trillion annually.

Harris, by comparison, understands the importance of overseas markets for America, whether that is in technology, defence or entertainment. 

Immigration

Again, having worked in San Francisco and seen how immigrants contribute to the tech economy, Vice-President Harris has a more nuanced view of immigration than President Trump, who has called immigrants “poisoning the blood of our country”. 

One-in-four US STEM workers were born overseas, while half of all startups with revenues of $1 billion or greater have immigrant founders or co-founders.

Corporation tax

President Trump reportedly recently told CEOs that he wants to cut corporation tax down to 20% from the 21% he slashed it to in 2017 if he does win in November. 

Vice-President Harris has yet to spell out what her current position is but as a presidential candidate in 2020, she did push for the rate to go back up to 35% - where it was before President Trump slashed it. 

Energy policy

As vice president, Harris has promoted the policies of the Environmental Protection Agency, the bête noire of many CEOs in the energy sector. As a San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general, she filed lawsuits against oil companies including Phillips 66 and ConocoPhillips. 

President Trump has decried his rival for her opposition to fracking. While it is true that she supported a fracking ban when running for president in 2020, she has since softened her position. Indeed, domestic US oil and gas production reached an all-time high under the Biden era.

Artificial intelligence

Harris has been outspoken about protecting the public from the potential dangers of artificial intelligence, announcing new rules requiring US federal agencies only to use AI tools which don’t harm the public. She has also advocated for consumer protections against AI-generated scam calls and the potential harms of AI-generated content.

What CEOs really think of Kamala Harris

Given that nearly 80% of businesses see a second Donald Trump presidency as more dangerous than China invading Taiwan, or even a clash between Russia and NATO, perhaps the CEO consensus is best summed up by LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman.

Hoffman told Fast Company: “The majority of CEOs I talk to are deeply concerned with the chaos and division and kind of anti-stability and anti-rule of law that Trump and his supporters represent for the country, right?

“What I think people don’t realise is that stability, unity, and rule of law is the most important thing for business. It isn’t a question of like corporate taxes going up or down by a percentage or an additional regulation or two.”