Oliver Wyman: AI Could Reduce Entry-Level Positions

According to research from Oliver Wyman’s The CEO Agenda 2026 survey, more than 40% of CEOs plan to cut junior roles over the next one to two years and create a workforce that consists of more mid-level and senior positions.

“I think the junior level is definitely finding it harder now to enter the workforce,” says John Romeo, Managing Partner and CEO of Oliver Wyman. “It’s those mid- and senior-level employees that CEOs are now looking at to drive productivity.”

AI agents are able to perform tasks like writing code at the equivalent level of a junior developer, making it hard for entry-level workers to offer skills that can’t already be done via automation.

What AI agents can’t do in many fields is make judgement calls using the insight that comes from on-the-job experience, according to industry experts.

Consultant and Lecturer Ravin Jesuthasan, who has written several books on the future of work, says companies are looking for individuals who have experience, “wisdom” and actual problem-solving skills are much more valuable to a company than any entry-level skills.

Prioritising mid-level positions

According to the survey, the share of CEOs saying that they were looking to reduce junior roles over the next year or two doubled to 43% from 17% just last year. Only 17% of CEOs said they are shifting hiring to focus on more junior positions.

Roughly 30% of respondents said they are shifting hiring to more mid-level roles, up from only 10% last year.

“Notably, the CEOs with the longest planning horizons are the most likely to plan headcount reductions,” the report says. 

“That suggests they expect a structurally leaner organisation not as a cost measure but as the destination — the endpoint of an AI-augmented operating model that requires fewer people, deployed differently.”

AI was a key priority for most CEOs in the report and more than 90% said they are deploying AI in their companies, though 67% are still at the planning or pilot stages.

However, more than half of respondents said it was still too early to assess whether AI deployment was actually returning the promised productivity gains.

Potential risks with a reduced workforce

The survey builds on the results of a 2025 Harvard University study that found firms adopting generative AI had significantly reduced their junior-level positions, while keeping more senior employment largely stable. 

Companies reducing younger talent now in favour of AI agents could face potential risks. This reduction in the workforce could see firms potentially experiencing worker shortages in the future, according to Helen Leis, Global Head of Leadership and Change at Oliver Wyman.

To “have the mid-level people that can manage an agentic workforce, they need to learn the company and the job,” Helen said.

With this idea in mind, IBM said in February that it plans to triple entry-level hiring in the US this year and will rewrite job descriptions for the AI era.

However, IBM appears to be an outlier, as a study from Stanford University in November found that young workers were 16% more likely to lose their jobs in the most AI-exposed fields.

Even if companies favour older workers amid AI shifts in the job market, it doesn’t guarantee job security. “Firms’ commitment to workers is weaker and weaker,” says Teresa Ghilarducci, a labour economist at The New School.