What CEOs Need to Know About the US-Iran Conflict

Wall Street’s Volatility Index – which measures the expected volatility of the US stock market over 30 days – has hit a new peak in 2026 following the outbreak of the conflict between the US and Iran in which Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed. 

Research from the Conference Board finds that CEOs are increasingly concerned about the impact of geopolitical tensions on long-term operating environments, with 60% citing it as a high-risk factor for their business.  

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, commented on the conflict in an interview with CNBC, saying: “There’s some risk there’s more inflation than people think, and that could be like a skunk at a party if that ever happens”.

In the interview, he cited the inflationary risks present if the conflict goes on longer than anticipated, and the need for businesses to increase investments in their cybersecurity measures. 

Early financial impacts of the conflict

The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has led to a significant surge in energy prices – with Brent crude rising 10% at the beginning of March to approximately US$80 a barrel. 

This has been exacerbated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one fifth of the oil consumed globally. Around 150 ships have reportedly been stranded around the strait. 

Increases in energy prices may lead to higher supply costs for businesses and could impact earning expectations for those in industries such as aviation or hospitality. 

Jamie believes that this surge will not lead to long-term price increases.

Speaking with CNBC, he said: “This right now will increase gas prices a little bit. If it’s not prolonged, it’s not going to be a major inflationary hit. If it went on for a long time, that would be different.”

If short term, these price increases may not be felt by the local market. 

Investing in a resilient cyber strategy

Businesses may also want to increase their investments in cyber resilience, says Jamie.

“The most important thing is that we keep the Western world free and safe for democracy,” he said. “But as a corollary to that, you’ve got to expect there’ll be cyberattacks or terrorist attacks, either here or around the world. Banks may be targets.” 

JPMorgan Chase itself has built a cyber reliance strategy that is designed to make sure the bank can anticipate, withstand and adapt to cyber attacks.

In 2025, the bank launched a US$1.5tn Security and Resiliency Initiative (SRI) for the next decade, which includes investments in AI, quantum computing and cybersecurity to enhance detection and protection capabilities. 

It also spends more than US$600m per year on cybersecurity, and has made a US$10bn investment in direct investments in critical industries in order to strengthen economic security. 

Jamie says: “We always try to be prepared for that. We never try to predict when, why or where.”

How long will the US-Iran conflict last? 

Initial predictions place the conflict at lasting approximately five weeks. 

Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton, has said at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney that, while there are “a lot of moving parts”, she believes this is “actually a shorter-term” event. 

She says: “As long as the rest of the Middle East doesn’t retaliate, this is probably a four to five week event”.

Donald Trump has sent mixed signals on the duration of the conflict, however. 

Speaking to press, he shared that the government was “already substantially ahead”, of its projections, but the conflict may go on longer than initially anticipated. 

He said: “Whatever the time is, it’s OK, whatever it takes, we will always and we have from right from the beginning.

“We projected four to five weeks but we have capability to go far longer than that.”